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研报:交银国际证券:阿里巴巴:六月的季度业绩亮眼
发布时间:2017年08月23日 09:32:13

(电子商务研究中心讯)  收入/利润为六月季度2017beat共识5% / 27%固体e-commerceperformance和经营杠杆。总收入为亿元人民币,同比环比上涨30% / 56% /,比我们的估计/一rmb48.5bn/rmb47.9bn respectively.non-gaap EPS为rmb7.95高3%/5%,击败我们的估计一致rmb5.86 / rmb6.25by36 % / 27%。非GAAP运营利润率增加了8ppts / 4ppts环比/同比,由经营杠杆的实体带来的收入增长,这抵消了连续投资Lazada库存,优酷土豆的内容,菜鸟物流和天猫超市的fulfillmentservices。

  在线广告收入同比增长65%,增加流量和点击次数驱动。核心电子商务业务收入rmb43bn,36% / 58%的环比/同比,主要依靠网络营销服务的强劲表现,其中营业收入同比增长65%,在同比基础上,这是由于1)流量增加,与茂淘宝App reaching529m,添加22m与上季度相比;2)固体GMV生长,有利于电子商务行业fromcontinuous渗透,和49%的同比增长在天猫GMV;和3)的点击数增加,因为更多的个性化内容推荐的产品更advancedalgorithm支持。通过向广告主提供更好的价值主张,阿里巴巴的电子商务平台,吸引更多的商家支付平均支出也在增加,我们认为。银泰的合并可能2017also促成的核心电子商务业务的yoyrevenue生长。此外,国际零售收入同比增长by136同比%,由Lazada和阿里巴巴全球速卖通快速GMV增长驱动。

  不付费的云业务的客户达到1m的里程碑,与税前lossmargin进一步缩小。云计算的收入同比增长96%,达到实现24亿元,通过付费客户扩张驱动。付费用户的数量businesssurpassed云1m由六月的季度末,和客户群涵盖了范围广泛的行业,如能源、消费品牌、金融机构、制造业、零售业。坚实的收入增长和规模经济的推动下,云计算业务的税前亏损幅度收窄至4%,从一年前的13%。然而,随着市场的扩张仍然是重中之重,对于Ali Cloud,我们希望在云的激进的投资继续,和分部税前利润可能出现波动季度。

  数字媒体的创新举措,稳步增长,导致收入的8% / 1%,分别。数字媒体业务收入同比增长30%至rmb4.1bn,由UCWEB新闻和移动搜索增值收入驱动。优酷土豆在用户数量快速增长,归属于通俗剧的播出。创新举措是rmb645m收入,同比增长21%,由来自AutoNavi的收入增长的带动下,自六月的季度,从新鲜的食品店Hema收入重新分类从innovationinitiatives到中国商业零售企业的业务越来越mature.valuation。我们调整我们的收入预测由于高于预期的客户managementrevenue(以前称为在线营销收入)和提高利润底线估计的改进。电梯TP 191美元,这意味着45x / 37x cy2017e / 18e PE。维持买入。

  原文:

  Revenue/profit for the June quarter 2017beat consensus by 5%/27% on solid e-commerceperformance and operating leverage. Total revenue was RMB50.2bn, up 30%/56% QoQ/YoY,and 3%/5% higher than our estimate/consensus of RMB48.5bn/RMB47.9bn respectively.Non-GAAP EPS was RMB7.95, beating our estimate/consensus of RMB5.86/RMB6.25by36%/27% respectively. Non-GAAP operating margin increased by 8ppts/4ppts QoQ/YoY, drivenby operating leverage brought by solid revenue growth, which offset the continuous investmentin Lazada inventory, Youku Tudou content, Cainiao logistics and Tmall Supermarket’s fulfillmentservices.

  Online advertising revenue grew by 65% YoY, driven by increase in traffic and the number ofclicks. Core e-commerce business revenue was RMB43bn, up 36%/58% QoQ/YoY, mainly drivenby the solid performance of online marketing services, the revenue of which increased by 65% ona YoY basis, which was attributable to 1) increased traffic, with MAU of Taobao app reaching529m, adding 22m compared with the previous quarter; 2) solid GMV growth, benefiting fromcontinuous penetration of the e-commerce industry, and 49% YoY growth in Tmall GMV; and 3)increased number of clicks, thanks to more personalized content backed by more advancedalgorithm for product recommendation. By providing a better value proposition to advertisers,Alibaba’s e-commerce platform is attracting more paying merchants and average spending is alsoincreasing, in our view. The consolidation of Yintai from May 2017also contributed to the YoYrevenue growth in core e-commerce business. In addition, international retail revenue grew by136% YoY, driven by rapid GMV growth from Lazada and AliExpress.

  No. of paying customers of the cloud business reached the 1m milestone, with EBITA lossmargin further narrowed. Cloud computing revenue increased by 96% YoY, reaching RMB2.4bn,driven by expansion of paying customers. The number of paying customers for the cloud businesssurpassed 1m by the end of the June quarter, and the customer base covered a wide range ofindustries, such as energy, consumer brands, financial institutions, manufacturing, healthcareand retail. Driven by solid revenue growth and economies of scale, the EBITA loss margin of thecloud business narrowed to -4%, from -13% a year ago. However, as market expansion is still thetop priority for Ali Cloud, we expect the aggressive investment in cloud to continue, and thesegment EBITA margin may fluctuate from quarter to quarter.

  Steady growth for digital media and innovation initiatives, which contributed 8%/1% of totalrevenue, respectively. Digital media business revenue increased by 30% YoY to RMB4.1bn,driven by VAS revenue from UCWeb news feed and mobile search. Youku Tudou saw rapidgrowth in the number of subscribers, attributable to the broadcast of popular dramas. Revenuefrom innovation initiatives was RMB645m, up 21% YoY, driven by revenue growth from AutoNavi.Since the June quarter, revenue from the fresh store food Hema is reclassified from innovationinitiatives to China commerce retail business as the business is becoming more mature.Valuation. We adjust our revenue forecast due to higher-than-expected customer managementrevenue (previously named online marketing revenue) and raise bottom-line estimates onimproved margins. Lift TP to US$191, implying 45x/37x CY2017E/18E PE. Maintain Buy.(来源:交银国际证券;编选:交银国际证券)

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